The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects world oil output to rise by 2.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2026, reaching a total of 108.6 mb/d. This anticipated growth will be split evenly between OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers. The forecasted surge follows a turbulent January, where global supply plunged by 1.2 mb/d to 106.6 mb/d due to severe winter weather in North America and export outages across Kazakhstan, Russia, and Venezuela.
On the demand side, global consumption is forecast to rise by 850 kb/d this year, with non-OECD economies—led by China—accounting for the entirety of the increase. In a significant shift from last year's trends, petrochemical feedstocks will represent more than half of these demand gains, overtaking transport fuels. Despite the projected long-term supply growth, the market remains highly sensitive to immediate disruptions; benchmark crude prices jumped $10/bbl over January amid geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and tightening physical crude markets.
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